Friday, January 28, 2011

Tim's take on ME Protests

Cait posted on these first, and referenced that she was not the informed one, so I feel the need to post too. I'm actually not all that informed, but I've been thinking about these a lot and so here it goes (I'll try to keep it short and sweet):

Some main questions:
1) Can these protests succeed? Tunisia seems to have accomplished their main goal of ousting the President and some of his cronies. Egypt? The protesters seem to have demands besides the removal of Mubarak. Smart because there are a lot of Mubarak's in Egypt ready to take his place. But even getting Mubarak gone will be tough. Maybe they can get some of their other demands, like a better minimum wage? Yemen, which had it's first big protests today is even more of a question.

Egypt seems to be picking up steam, but it's so chaotic that it is hard to tell. Will the Egypt military side with civilians, like in Tunisia? The world is watching.

2) If they succeed, what will be the results? Will someone take over these movements for their own purposes? Will they descend into chaos (God forbid another Somalia)? Or will they, which is the highest hope, result in a move towards democracy in a part of the world that has been stuck for so long? I would love a move toward democracy, but all that I've studied in the ME makes me doubt.

3) How will the west react? The US has been in a tough spot, especially in Egypt, because they have supported Mubarak as an ally for a long time. I'm watching US positioning with almost as much interest as the protests themselves. It doesn't seem like all our support of Mubarak has made him listen to us much. What will we do if democracy comes to Egypt and they elect a lot of Muslim Brothers? Will we continue our policy of supporting democracy as long as no one who hates us gets elected or will we back up our claims of unconditional support of democracy no matter what its outcome?

I've got lots of questions and a fair amount of cautious optimism. No matter what happens, at least the part of the world I study continues to be fascinating. Watch al Jazeera's live feed. If anyone has looked good throughout all the protests, it's them.

1 comment:

  1. Thanks for sharing your opinion, Tim! I feel like Cait too... I have my thoughts about what is going on in Egypt, but obviously I'm the less informed one when it comes to husbands that study the Middle East:) A lot of your questions are questions I have had to. It will be interesting to see what Mubarak's next move will be.

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